Tedd's Informal Forecast of the Future
By Tedd Riggs, Copyright 1999
Version 1.00  Revised 11/27/99

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Introduction

Here is my 2 cents on the state of the world: ( well the little computer world that is )

Sony Memory Sticks

Sony and Memory Sticks-Sounds "cute", but do we really need yet more standard for memory ? nah, Sony will make them, they will be used on everything that Sony makes and then they will die just like the Beta tape did. The CF card will continue to live.

Sony and Palm Partnership

Sony and Palm OS-Sony needs something to get back into the market after the not so great performance of the Magic cap system ( which I thought was kinda neat actually ) so my guess is that they will stick with Palm for a while, maybe not even ever come out with a real one and somewhere in the back labs of Sony, they are working on a Sony Special that is a cross between Palm and CE.

Microsoft and the Death of Windows CE - HAH

My feeling is that Microsoft is looking at this very carefully and working very hard to fix what is not working, putting lots of money into it and before to long, will have a very successful product. They have the people and the money. 4 years ago Netscape was the winner and Explorer was well not so great, today its the other way around. There is for sure some work to be done though.

Palm-size PC Vs Handheld PC

This is the one I am stumped on. I love my Clio and hope that Vadem/Clio lives forever, but their is nothing new other then the C-1050 out their, the NEC MobilePro 800 and the Compaq Aero 8000 are not exactly selling many of them, the HP's 680/690's seem to be doing well, but I sure do not see much press on the new ones or software. Maybe the ultra thin Windows 98 ( i.e. Sony Vaio, Sharp Acticus ) are taking away from the market. I hope the HPC Pro's live, I love the long battery life and the instant on and for 90% of what I do, they are just fine. But I still want my new C-1050. Wish that Vadem had a few more people working there....

Windows CE Palm-size PC

Hard one.....Think the Compaq Aero 1530 is a wise move, great little unit, not sure if the Aero 2130/2150/2180 will survive ( but love mine ) The Casio E-105 will remain for the speed demons and multimedia. HP will most likely keep the 430Se, but needs to clean up that crazy cable mess and have a real docking station.

Palm vs. Windows CE
( no Flames please )

Palm when ( if ) they come out with color will be a instant hit, for about a month, then the users will find out the following No software as the old is only for B&W The battery life is not so good They might as well get a Windows CE

So my guess ? Palm will stay around forever for the more business set that wants something super small and does the basics and Windows CE will grow and add all the goodies. Hopefully battery technology will get better so CE will last longer and now that some time has gone by from the Taiwan fires/Earthquakes, the hard to get color LCD's will not be so hard to get nor as expensive.

Conclusion

So....that's my crystal ball...Maybe I am nuts, but just my guess. Now if we could get a iMac PDA, that would be cool also :-)

Tedd Riggs
Microsoft MVP - Windows CE

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